Thomas Wictor

Master plans only work when they can’t be figured out

Master plans only work when they can’t be figured out

We all agree that I’m just theorizing, right? Therefore I can spin whatever yarn I want without worrying about my reputation. Let’s talk about Turkey tonight. I believe that Turkey is part of a master plan to stabilize the Middle East. This post is not calling anyone a liar. Everything being said is—I think—deliberate deception to keep the necessary people off guard.

You may have heard this story.

Turkey’s military shelled Kurdish militia targets in northern Syria on Saturday and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu demanded that the group withdraw from the area in a move that further complicated the conflict across the NATO member’s border.

The shelling took place after Kurdish YPG fighters backed by Russian bombing raids drove Syrian rebels from a former military air base, south of the town of Azaz and near the Turkish border.

“Today retaliation was taken under the rules of engagement against forces that represented a threat in Azaz and the surrounding area,” the prime minister told reporters in comments shown live by state broadcaster TRT Haber.

Well, it’s actually much more complicated than that. First, we need to identify where this took place.

Minaq_Syria

This is the Menagh (or Minaq) Air Base.

Menagh_Air_Base

A report from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Aleppo Province: The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights was informed that Turkish forces shelled places controlled by YPG in the countryside of Azaz and in the northern countryside Aleppo province, where the shelling targeted the villages of Mar’anaz and Malkiyyeh and the area of Menagh in the northern countryside of Aleppo which were controlled by YPG two days ago[.]

Malkiyyeh (red arrow) and Mar’anaz are close to Menagh (purple arrow).

Azaz.2

Now things get confusing.

Master of deception must never make sense

Initially Turkey warned the Syrian Kurds that the Democratic Union Party’s militia the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG) must not cross the Euphrates River from east to west.

However, if YPG units took Menagh Air Base, they were already in the west.

The Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and its Arab allies expelled Islamist and other rebel fighters from the Minnigh air base and adjacent town, north of Syria’s second city Aleppo, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told AFP.

The advance comes after days of fierce clashes that saw YPG forces advance east from the Kurdish stronghold of Afrin and take over a series of villages before reaching Minnigh.

In the map below, Afrin is the red arrow, the Minaq-Menagh-Minnigh Air Base is the green arrow, and the Euphrates River is the purple arrow.

Afrin_Syria

Here’s what Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said after confirming that Turkey had fired artillery at Minaq Air Base and other targets.

We will retaliate against every step. The YPG will immediately withdraw from Azaz and the surrounding area and will not go close to it again.

Everything I’ve read says that the YPG took Minaq Air Base on February 11, 2016, and then threatened to attack Azaz. The Russians were said to have carried out air strikes in support of the YPG Minaq operation.

Four things.

One, the piece below was published on November 29, 2015.

Russia supports the Syrian affiliate of the PKK terrorist organization, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which is trying to take control of the Azaz region in Syria near the Turkish border.

While the YPG attacks opposition forces in Azaz, Russian aircraft have staged three airstrikes against the road linking the district with the Bab al Salameh border gate. The YPG said it is preparing for an offensive on the western Euphrates, which Turkey described as its “red line.”

More than two months ago, the YPG was already assaulting Azaz with Russian help, yet Turkey took no action. Why not?

Second point.

The Kurds say that they didn’t take Minaq Air Base.

A Kurdish official confirmed the shelling of the Menagh base, which he said had been captured by the Kurdish-allied Jaysh al-Thuwar group rather than the YPG. Both are part of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.

Jaysh al-Thuwar are Arabs who were trained by Arab League and African special operators.

Jaysh_al-Thuwar.4

Jaysh_al-Thuwar.5

I believe that in reality Jaysh al-Thuwar is a front for Arab League, Asian, Central Asian, and African special forces. The men never used to wear masks, they had no heavy weapons, and no state supported them.

Jaysh_al_Thuwar

Now they’re masked, and they have armored vehicles and unidentified automatic cannons (red arrow).

vehicles_Kobane.2

Third point.

The YPG wasn’t the only target of the Turkish shelling.

Anatolia news agency reported that the Turkish military hit Syrian government forces on Saturday, adding that the shelling had been in response to fire inflicted on a Turkish military guard post in Turkey’s southern Hatay region.

Turkish artillery targeted Syrian forces again late on Saturday, according to a military source quoted by RIA Novosti. The attack targeted the town of Deir Jamal in the Aleppo Governorate.

Fourth point.

The video below of Minaq Air Base was released on February 11, 2016, the day that the YPG or Jaysh al-Thuwar took the installation.

There’s no evidence whatsoever of fresh air strikes. No smoke, nothing burning, no craters. Yet the information below is being widely reported.

The Syrian Kurds have successfully driven an armed opposition group, the Levant Front, from a former Syrian military airbase in Syria’s north.

According to sources quoted by Reuters they were supported by Russian airstrikes in this endeavour. No fewer than 30 Russian air raids assisted the Kurdish offensive.

Thirty air strikes Russian-style would mean a minimum of 240 bombs. However, we see absolutely no sign that even one bomb hit the base. There were also no corpses. Why not, if the fighting was so fierce? The Kurds say that the jihadists suffered heavy casualties. Where are the dead bodies?

For some unfathomable reason, the jihadists holding the air base were armed with 19th century bolt-action rifles.

Minaq_Air_Base.2

Also an antique cavalry sword.

cavalry_sword

That pretty much proves that no state was supporting them, unless somehow Tsar Nicholas II was doing so with a time machine.

Nicholas_II

Not dishonest; master of geopolitics

You need to understand that there appeared to be no solution to Syria. Every group and state involved has fanatical elements that will not compromise, and every group and state involved depends for its survival on an image of superior military power. To concede is seen as weakness. It invites attack. Despite the seeming impossibility, a master plan was created.

After claiming that the Arabs of Jaysh al-Thuwar—not the Kurds of the YPG—had taken the Minaq Air Base, the YPG sent out a tweet saying that Turkey had shelled its positions…at Minaq Air Base.

Minaq_air_base

The area pictured above is not at Minaq Air Base.

Menagh_Air_Base

I searched for hours, but I couldn’t locate it.

The Turks are said to have fired their T-155 Fırtına self-propelled howitzers. This is supposed to be a video of the actual shelling taking place.

Was it sheer luck that the Kurds just happened to be there with cameras, and no Turkish sniper killed them?

The T-155 uses a 155mm round. Here’s how big it is.

155mm_round

For targeting ground troops, the Turks would use a high-explosive fragmentation round, and they would almost certainly set it to explode in an air burst. LANGUAGE WARNING; no gore. Stupid graphics and music.

An air burst won’t leave craters. It sprays the earth with thousands of razor-sharp fragments. If a 155mm round did hit the earth, it wouldn’t make a crater the size of Mount Fuji.

azaz_ypg_bombs

Despite what we’re told was hours of shelling, the YPG and Jaysh al-Thuwar didn’t suffer a single casualty. Nobody was even scratched.

Master of improvement

When the stakes are astronomical, and when a handful of visionaries are trying to improve an entire region, they’re allowed to tell whatever story they want. This post is intended to reassure; that’s all. What’s happening in Syria is theater, but if the show is a box-office failure, thousands will die. Governments will fall. Raving lunatics will go out and start slaughtering everyone in sight.

Trust the master.

mohammed-bin-salman

You don’t have to like or support him. Just believe that he knows what he’s doing.

A leader like Mohammed bin Salman—Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince—comes along only once in a lifetime, if that. He surrounds himself with people who know more about the military than he does. That’s what makes him a genius, a true master of his craft. The Saudis became de facto allies of Israel, convinced the Turks to accept the creation of an independent Kurdistan, and prevented Iran from taking over Yemen.

Next is the defeat of the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Assad.

Saudi Arabia is sending troops and fighter jets to Turkey’s Incirlik military base ahead of a possible ground invasion of Syria.

The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, confirmed the deployment in a statement to the Yeni Şafak newspaper on Saturday, days before a temporary ceasefire is due to come into force.

“At every coalition meeting we have always emphasised the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group. If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch an operation from the land.”

He confirmed that planes and military personnel were being sent to Incirlik, in Adana near the Syrian border, but said numbers had not been confirmed.

Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, said Russia’s intervention would not help Assad stay in power.

“There will be no Bashar al-Assad in the future,” he told a German newspaper.

The news above? It doesn’t mean what you think, in exactly the same way that Turkey allegedly shelling the YPG didn’t mean what you think. The main purpose of this deadly serious theater is to throw everyone off balance. Once upon a time we in the west knew how to do that. I hope we someday master that skill again.

Oh, and Jaysh al-Thuwar, the Army of Revolutionaries who now fight masked? Look at the eyes of the first two men.

Jaysh_al_Thuwar.9

Arabs? How about these guys?

Jaysh_al_Thuwar.8

Arabs? Especially the one on the far right?

I’m sure of only one thing: really skinny men who kick?

Jaysh_al-Thuwar.8

Saudi special forces. That’s how you recognize them.

Saudi_kicker

The best thing about Jaysh al-Thuwar is that they put out a video of themselves training, and then they disappeared. Whoever they are, they fight in complete secrecy. I’ll bet you any amount of money that they’re professionals.

Be strong and optimistic. This will all end the way its supposed to.

I promise.


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