Intuition is a skill that almost anybody can easily learn
July 21, 2016 by Thomas Wictor
An ability to know something without requiring proof or evidence. That’s intuition. I do use evidence for my micro-theories. For example, when I wrote that Israel and the Arab League jointly developed new weapons. First I saw a video.
The soldier walked away uninjured.
Because the video purports to show an American BGM-71 TOW antitank guided missile (ATGM), I knew that someone in Syria had new weapons. All BGM-71 TOW warheads would’ve vaporized that man.
It was clear to me that the missile destroyed the tent with a shock wave, not steel fragments. However, the shock wave did not travel forward and hit the soldier. Instead, the explosive force went upward and to the sides. Not even the body of the missile itself struck the man.
When confronted with mystery weapons, I do a patent search. That was how I found the answer.
I now have over a decade’s worth of experience searching weapon patents. Years ago, I wanted to join the community of military historians, so I published books about World War I flamethrowers and assault troops. Military historians universally rejected my ideas, since I based so many of them on intuition. I’ll give you an example.
The Austro-Hungarian flamethrower battalion changed its name from Imperial and Royal Special Sapper Battalion No. 61 to Imperial and Royal Special Assault Battalion ( K.u.K Spezial-Sturm-Bataillon). In German, Bataillon is abbreviated Baon. The world’s foremost authority on the Austro-Hungarian Army wrote a giant book about assault troops. He claimed that the Special Assault Battalion didn’t have a Close Combat Weapons Company (Nahkampfmittel-Kompagnie).
Such a company would have grenade launchers, trench mortars, and machine guns. I wrote the author to ask him about it. It was just a question. How did he know that the flamethrower battalion didn’t have a close-combat weapons company? His reply was dismissive and incredibly hostile. He basically called me a know-nothing idiot.
Last year I bought this postcard.
Meet Pioneer Sandor Póczi, Trench Mortar Platoon, Close Combat Weapons Company, Imperial and Royal Special Assault Battalion.
My intuition told me that the “expert” is the real idiot. He’d simply made up his claim about the Austro-Hungarian flamethrower battalion. That’s why he got so defensive.
Intuition that they’re all insane
The reason I gave up writing military-history books is that I got tired of being aggressively cross examined about absolutely everything I said. I always made sure to point out that I was making educated guesses, but that wasn’t good enough. In the field of military history, you have to have a document that tells you what to think. Intuition is an obscenity.
Well, the photo above is the only document in existence that proves I was right: The Austro-Hungarian flamethrower battalion had a Close Combat Weapons Company. And now I own that unique document.
I’m also right about the Arab League using new weapons in Syria. Just like when I wrote my flamethrower and assault-troop books, I did patent searches. The weapon in the video above is a fuel-air explosive (FAE). There are are patents for devices to direct the shock waves from FAE. Therefore an FAE can explode right in your face, but it won’t harm you.
My micro-theories are not SWAGs—scientific wild-assed guesses. However, my macro-theories are indeed SWAGs.
Intuition proved correct
The new weapons kill a very small number of people. In Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, the Arab League is fighting the most humane wars in world history. Even combatants are not killed in large numbers. The goal is to destroy the enemy’s offensive capabilities without creating martyrs and a desire for revenge.
I therefore theorized—using my intuition—that Saudi Arabia had adopted an ethos: “Live and let live.”
Beginning in October of 2015, every possible ethnic and religious group in the Middle East began defeating all the forces that oppress them. This made me realize that the Saudis have no imperial ambitions and offered help with no strings attached. They wanted peace and stability for their own national security, of course, but they also wanted the region to achieve its potential.
Saudis are Middle Easterners. They want the entire region to stand on its own two feet and not be at the mercy of outsiders. My intuition told me that if Middle Easterners simply stop misbehaving, the Saudis will not bear grudges. And I was absolutely right.
In Brussels, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir gave a lecture on terrorism at the behest of the Egmont Research Center. The Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs organized the event. Al-Jubeir confirmed everything I’ve been saying.
So: Here’s what I predict.
Intuition brought me here
The Saudis are 100 percent trustworthy. Therefore when all nations in the Middle East give up imperialist ambitions, the Saudis will normalize relations with everybody, including Iran and Israel. The Sunni-Shia rift is over. Soon the Jewish-Muslim rift will end.
Someone is willing to carry out unbelievably complex and fearless operations to stop troublemakers. We in the west talk and talk and talk. Someone in the Middle East is not only taking action, it’s like something from a science-fiction movie.
Did you see it? The pilot switched off his red and green position lights and his white anti-collision light.
Then he turned on the white anti-collision light on the tail and blinked one white light on the port wing.
The F-16 doesn’t have white lights on the wings.
Obviously the pilot was flying a modified F-16. He sent a rapid visual signal to some kind of aerial surveillance platform, automatically initiating another phase of the operation.
And the photos and videos show that the aircraft carried no air-to-surface munitions.
Those are fuel tanks and air-to-air missiles. The F-16s had no bombs. My guess is that no Turkish aircraft got off the ground that night.
What the hell happened in Turkey on July 15, 2016?
Intuition hasn’t failed me yet
Someone got tired of Turkey’s aggression and imperialist double-dealing. The Turks were serious about normalizing relations with Bashar al-Assad to “help him fight terrorism.” At the same time, the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) would continue arming and supporting al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Turkey would become another stinking big cheese, just like Iran, forever throwing its weight around and disrupting millions of lives.
This will no longer be allowed in the new Middle East. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan picked the wrong time to lose his mind with delusions of grandeur.
It took forty-five minutes to demolish the Turkish armed forces, which “experts” say were among the best in the world.
For the sake of argument, let’s say that the experts are correct.
If the Turkish armed forces were among the best in the world, what does that say about the capabilities of the people who crippled Turkey?
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