Thomas Wictor

End game in Syria now clear and in sight

End game in Syria now clear and in sight

I’m pretty sure that I’ve found the end game in Syria. It’s a stunner.

First, here’s an attempt to derail the plan.

A car bomb went off in the Turkish capital Wednesday near vehicles carrying military personnel, killing at least 28 people and wounding 61 others, officials said.

The explosion occurred during evening rush hour in the heart of Ankara, in an area close to parliament and armed forces headquarters and lodgings. Buses carrying military personnel were targeted while waiting at traffic lights at an intersection, the Turkish military said while condemning the “contemptible and dastardly” attack.

“We believe that those who lost their lives included our military brothers as well as civilians,” Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus said.

Russia was probably behind this. Both Russia and Iran support the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). And I wouldn’t put it past Putin to help the Islamic State either. These are the words of US Army Colonel Steve Warren, spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve.

What we have seen is recklessness, indiscriminate strikes, primarily using dumb bombs, with really—what I would refer to as a strategically short-sighted vision of operations inside of Syria.

You know, the Russians, early on, they claimed that they were interested in fighting ISIL. But we simply have not seen that.

So, the words and their actions do not align. The Russian actions have done nothing except prop up Bashar al-Assad, who we know is the root of the problem in Syria. And we don’t see a future Syria that has Assad in it.

Why would Russia want Turkey to invade Syria? A means to an end: throwing all of Assad’s enemies into disorder.

One end game: Assad gone

There’s a lot of propaganda being put out that the Kurdish Democratic Union Party’s militia the People’s Protection Units (YPG) is working with the Russians. I see no evidence of that. The information below was widely reported.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the war through a network of sources on the ground, reported heavy fighting between Kurds and Syrian rebels around Menagh air base, a former Syrian air force facility that had fallen into rebel hands.

Russian warplanes staged at least 30 raids against rebels at the base before the Kurdish fighters were able to seize it.

This is incorrect in two ways. First, Menagh Air Base was not hit by even one aerial munition. The “Russian air strikes” are fiction.

Secondly, the Kurds didn’t take Menagh Air Base. A nominally Arab force called Jaysh al-Thuwar—Army of Revolutionaries—was responsible.

A Kurdish official confirmed the shelling of the Menagh base, which he said had been captured by the Kurdish-allied Jaysh al-Thuwar group rather than the YPG. Both are part of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.

I contend that Jaysh al-Thuwar is actually comprised of Arab, Asian, Central Asian, and African professional strategic special operators, “C6ISR forces” that were conceived by Israel in around 2010. These are groups of about 500 to 800 men armed with new weapons, tanks, artillery, and aircraft. They have the firepower and training to defeat conventional forces of almost any size.

And now I finally have combat video of Jaysh al-Thuwar. I was right; they’re professional special operators, as I’ll show you in a moment.

Assad and the Russians are trying to turn Sunni Arabs against the Kurds by claiming that the YPG is working with the regime. This propaganda video is typical.

In reality, neither Russia nor Assad had anything to do with the taking of Tal Rifaat.

The strategic town of Til Rıfat (Arpêt) north of Aleppo and 6 km south of Azaz, was liberated by combatants of Jaysh Al-Thuwar (The Army of Revolutionaries) at around 19:00 local time yesterday evening.

Tal Rifaat was held by the Levant Front (Ahrar al-Sham), a Sunni Islamist coalition. The Russians and Assad are trying to discredit the Kurds with the following claim.

Regardless of the ultimate outcome of Syria’s five-year-long civil war, which has already left upwards of 250,000 dead and 11 million people displaced, the Syrian rebels say they will exact revenge on the Kurds for joining a battlefield alliance with the Assad regime.

General Salem Idris, former chief of staff of the Western-backed Free Syrian Army, contends such revenge is inevitable. He says the FSA and the political opposition cautioned U.S. officials that while the YPG may have been a useful ally for the West in the struggle to defeat Islamic State jihadists, in the longer term it was always ready to work with the Assad regime.

“There is very strong coordination between the YPG and the regime,” Idris says. “It is not hidden today.”

The moment the regime’s offensive began, after repeated Russian airstrikes against rebel targets, Idris said the YPG decided Assad was likely to win and grasped the opportunity to side openly with the regime on the battlefield.

This is a fabrication. Remember, JAYSH AL-THUWARnot the Kurdstook both Menagh Air Base and Tal Rifaat. Here’s what the US military has to say about alleged Kurdish-Assad cooperation.

I don’t know if we’ve seen any evidence to indicate that the Afrin Kurds are working with the regime.

What we’ve seen is the Afrin Kurds are moving a little bit to the east. Really, we believe in an effort to block the regime from moving north.

You bet they’re blocking Assad.

Afrin_Syria

But again, it’s Jaysh al-Thuwar leading the way.

End game for Turkey? Kurdistan

Everybody—including the Turks—is saying this.

Turkey has shelled Syrian Kurdish forces in northern Syria for the fourth day in a row as Ankara tries to stop the YPG from claiming the town of Azaz, which is just 8km from the Turkish border.

Turkish artillery units in the southeastern province of Kilis fired shells at Kurdish targets on Tuesday morning, in areas that were under the control of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), Today’s Zaman daily reports, citing the Dogan news agency. The sound of shelling could be heard from Kilis city center, just kilometers from the Syrian border.

But there’s no video of casualties or incoming artillery rounds. The Turks are indeed firing, yes.

She’s reporting from Kilis, Turkey, where the T-155 self-propelled howitzers are located. The Turks want everyone to see them firing. But note how Anelise Borges says that the shelling isn’t deterring the “Kurdish” advance.

An end to a means

The photo below was posted on social media. It’s said to be munitions that Turkey supplied to Islamist groups in Syria.

Mina_M62

No. It’s former Yugoslavian. The language is Croatian, not Turkish. The Mina M62 P3 60mm mortar round was a Yugoslavian export munition.

Now Serbia exports the Mina M62.

MBM_PRAC_60mm

Since Assad and Russia are smearing the Turks, I’ll reveal something that I’d planned to keep secret.

This photo that shows the impact of Turkish artillery at Menagh Air Base?

azaz_ypg_bombs

It’s a model. A diorama. Look at it closely. It’s completely phony, made of papier-mâché. I used to build dioramas, back when my eyesight was good.

Renault_FT_tank

Instant papier-mâché makes very realistic earth. After it’s painted, it looks completely authentic.

The Turks are only pretending to shell the YPG. They’re playing the bad guy. Why? For the stability of the region.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are gaining ground in their advance toward the border city of Azaz despite Turkish shelling on their positions, a commander with the SDF told Syria Direct on Monday.

“The Turkish strikes have not and will not affect us, and the proof is that we’re still advancing,” Jaish al-Thuwwar spokesman Tareq Abu Zeid told Syria Direct Monday. Jaish al-Thuwwar is a member of the SDF coalition.

Believe me: If Turkey wanted to stop anyone with artillery, they could. The T-155 Fırtına can fire a round every 7.5 seconds. Six T-155s could drop almost fifty rounds per minute on advancing troops.

Each 155mm high-explosive fragmentation round shatters into 2000 razor-sharp pieces that fly as fast as a bullet. Here’s what those fragments do to armor plate.

fragmentation_damage

The Turks aren’t trying to stop the Kurds. This is the goal.

The Turkish assaults on Kurdish and allied forces around Azaz is rallying public opinion for the SDF’s campaign to take the border city, Rauj Afrini, alias of a Kurdish citizen journalist in Afrin, told Syria Direct Monday.

“Some Kurds were against the idea of a new campaign, but after the Turkish strikes on the YPG they’ve become more sympathetic with their cause.”

Turkey has said that it won’t invade Syria without a UN Security Council Resolution. Since Russia is a permanent member of the Council, that’ll never happen. But read social media. Plenty of Turks hate Kurds and want them all dead.

Although Turkey admits that an independent Kurdistan is inevitable, it can be done in a controlled way, or it can end in a blood-drenched catastrophe.

partition

Independence

If Jaysh Al-Thuwar takes Azaz, and then the YPG shows up, Turkey can say, “We did everything we could to stop them, but we got no help from the world.” Face is saved. Maniacs don’t run loose. A Kurdish Syria is created, and then an independent Kurdistan.

Professionals and the end game

I was convinced that Jaysh Al-Thuwar is Arab, Asian, Central Asian, and African strategic special forces. Now I have the evidence. This is the only video that shows them in combat.

We have hurricanes of bullets, air strikes, artillery strikes, the sound of supercharged vehicle engines, and weapons that I don’t recognize.

This is a thermobaric warhead that directs its force downward into a trench.

thermobaric.1

thermobaric.2

thermobaric.3

thermobaric.4

The new weapons don’t produce fragments of metal, so collateral damage is almost nonexistent.

Another thermobaric warhead. The shock is tremendous.

thermobaric.5

That explosion is yellowish green, indicating a new formula of fuel. All known thermobaric weapons produce yellow-orange flames.

thermobaric.8

Finally, we have an unidentified launcher.

launcher

The square end makes it look like a MANPADS (man-portable air-defense system) or shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile, but it isn’t. Neither the Levant Front nor the al-Nusra Front have aircraft.

I don’t think those men are professional special forces. Arab League and allied operators literally never appear on camera if they can help it. They have local fighters as support.

The men below are under heavy fire from at least two directions. A round hits the wall right over their heads, but they carry out their mission.

Jaysh_al_Thuwar.9

Jaysh_al-Thuwar.7

Jaysh_al-Thuwar.10

Only professionals have such nerves of steel. Also, Jaysh al-Thuwar always wins.

So that’s my latest theory. We’ll know soon enough if I’m right.


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