Thomas Wictor

Change in the Middle East is happening too rapidly to chart

Change in the Middle East is happening too rapidly to chart

One motivation behind the incredible change in the Middle East is self-interest. The region relies on tourism, and the oil-based economies are switching over to technology, manufacturing, and investment. Saudi Vision 2030 explains the plan. Peace and stability are necessary for the Middle East to survive. Just two Islamic State terrorist attacks wiped out the Tunisian tourism industry.

I can guarantee that the Saudis don’t have a nefarious intent behind their wars: Capital is more mobile than ever. If Saudi Vision 2030 is successful and then the Saudis say, “Surprise!” and attack Israel and Shi’ite Iraq, the entire Middle East will collapse overnight. Everyone will pull out their money.

Most importantly, the Saudis and their allies want to become less dependent on the US. We’re no longer a reliable partner, either politically or militarily. We may become a serious nation again sometime in the future, but the Arab League needs to build up its own manufacturing base so that the region becomes self-sustaining.

Change in Gaza

This was a foregone conclusion.

Hamas’s political chief, Khaled Mashaal, will not try to retain his office in the upcoming elections for the leadership of the terror group, which rules Gaza, Arab media reported on Tuesday.

The London-based Arabic newspaper Rai Alyoum reported Tuesday that Mashaal will not run in the next elections, scheduled to take place by the end of the year. Unlike the last elections in 2013, when the Hamas leader claimed he would retire but then ran in the elections, this time the decision is final, the report said.

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He will publicly announce his decision before preparations for the elections begin, the report said.

Mashaal, 56, is a veteran politician with close ties to regional powers Qatar, Egypt and Turkey. He has been key to Hamas’s attempts to break out of political isolation following its violent takeover of Gaza in 2007. He has led the movement since 1996.

Khaled Mashaal is a billionaire mafioso who profits from the deaths of Palestinians. Based in Qatar, he’s allied to both the Iranian mullahs and the Islamic State. As long as Hamas exists in its present form, the Middle East can’t achieve peace. So the Qataris made Mashaal an offer he couldn’t refuse.

My guess is that Qatari commandos are the ones blowing up Hamas tunnels and encouraging commanders of the Nokhba tunnel-based fighters to defect to Israel.

I’m not afraid of Arab League commandos. The reason I’m not afraid is that I don’t threaten the existence of Arab League nations. Terrorism is a massive threat, since the future of the Middle East requires peace and stability. Therefore those who refuse to cooperate are killed without hesitation. Khaled Mashaal decided he didn’t want the role of “imminent corpse.”

Change in war

Social media is full of propaganda that is childish wish-casting.

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In reality, the Islamic State is being surgically dismantled. The video below shows that vehicles full of explosives can now be destroyed without damaging buildings within arm’s length.

Unidentified munition, likely a loitering drone. Not American.

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Explosion.

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Aftermath.

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Only the vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) and its explosives were destroyed. And it’s clear that the explosives were burned (deflagrated) instead of exploded (detonated). This is a huge change in the way wars are fought. The welfare of civilians is put first. That means the wars take longer.

This BBC video is quite amazing.

These men below aren’t special-operations forces (SOF). Look at the spare tire on that guy (red arrow).

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He’s a Kurdish militiaman. The Kurds have equipment that they don’t want captured on camera.

The BBC didn’t film an air strike. It’s the destruction of an underground structure. There’s a low building with a heavy door (red arrow).

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A cloud of exploding vapor shoots out of the building, carrying the door with it.

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Then the bunker or tunnel beneath the building explodes.

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That’s not the signature of an aerial munition. This is.

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A mushroom cloud: wide at the top, narrow at the bottom. Also, the BBC smoke tower is four distinct colors, indicating different materials exploding.

You just watched another Arab League commando operation, similar to the ones taking place in Gaza.

And here’s one of the commandos. He’s put reflective tape on his rifle magazine (red arrow) so he can see it at night, and he’s black.

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Those two factors and something else make me think he’s a Saudi.

Change in Saudi Arabia

This commando has wrapped a black-and-white kheffiyh around the buttstock of his rifle. Two narrow flags are attached to the kheffiyh.

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No. That’s not the Palestinian flag. It’s the flag of the Kingdom of Hejaz.

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I thought Saudi Arabia would become a constitutional monarchy, but now I think the kingdom will be a federation. The House of Saud will voluntarily relinquish a massive amount of power and influence.

It’s the best way to ensure stability. The Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG) exists solely to prevent military coups. However, the Royal Saudi Armed Forces and the the SANG have begun merging in many ways. Saudi Special Forces now help guard the king.

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Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her bodyguards. So was President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Laurent Kabila, Pakistani Punjab Province Governor Salman Taseer, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzais’ brother Ahmed Wali Karzai, and Guatemalan President Carlos Castillo Armas. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat was killed by members of his army. I think the Saudis have avoided this risk.

We have a saying in the west: “If you love something, let it go. If it doesn’t come back, then you never had it in the first place.”

I’m fairly sure that the House of Saud and its allies are gradually letting go of their people. The great mistake that the west made in Iraq and Afghanistan was in imposing democracy rapidly and from the outside. Our intentions were good, but we were still idiots who didn’t listen to those who knew better.

Don’t believe what you see and read on social media. The Arab League and its allies are steadily destroying all oppressive groups in the Middle East. I’m not surprised by the news below.

The United Arab Emirates on Wednesday announced the end of its military operations in Yemen.

Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Anwar Gargash made the announcement during a lecture at the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi’s court on Wednesday night.

In a tweet summarizing Gargash’s remarks, Sheikh Mohammed, crown prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the armed forces, said: “Our standpoint is clear: war is over for our troops. We are monitoring political arrangements, empowering Yemenis in liberated areas.”

Western “experts” completely misinterpreted the UAE’s role in the Yemen war. Emiratis trained thousands of Yemenis and supported them with armored vehicles, self-propelled artillery, and air power. But virtually all of the infantry were Yemenis. The new war-fighting strategy is another brilliant change. The locals are helped by the best warriors on earth.

This is a Saudi commando wrongly identified as a Syrian Kurd.

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His AK-47 rifle is customized with the buttstock of an American AR-15, his face is classically Arab, his skin tone is olive, he has the beard and haircut favored by Saudi paratrooper officers, and he’s extremely thin and fit. He bears a close resemblance to Saudi Special Forces Colonel Abdullah al-Sahian, killed in Yemen on December 14, 2015.

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The Saudi commando in Syria also has carefully sculpted eyebrows, which Wahhabism expressly forbids for men.

A big change: Saudis are making their own decisions. Soon everyone in the Middle East will be doing the same.


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